worldsteel Short Range Outlook
27 Apr 2009London - The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts that worldwide apparent steel use is expected to decline by -14.9% to 1,018.6 million metric tons (mmt) in 2009 after declining by -1.4% (1,197 mmt) in 2008. However, steel demand is expected to stabilise in the latter part of 2009 leading to a mild recovery in 2010.
The worldsteel Board reviewed the forecast for 2009 at its meeting in London on 26 April. Commenting, Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said: "The progression of the US financial crisis into a global economic crisis brought about a massive and regionally synchronised global decline of steel demand in late 2008. For most of the world this trend has continued into the first quarter of 2009. Improvement in steel consumption for the second half of 2009 will depend on the effects of government stimulation packages, the continued stabilisation of financial systems and a return of some consumer confidence. Steel remains a vital core material for today and tomorrow's world and the industry is well positioned to respond to changing market conditions."
Within the NAFTA region, the US is expected to show the largest decline in steel demand in the post-war period. In 2009, apparent steel use is expected to fall by -36.6%.
Europe will be the most affected region outside NAFTA. The EU 27, Other Europe, and CIS regions are expected to show a decline of more than 25% in their apparent steel use in 2009.
Japan has also been affected by a sharp decline in the exports of its steel-using industries, especially automotive and machinery. Apparent steel use is expected to fall by -20.4% in 2009.
Emerging economies are being affected by the economic crisis as well, but to a lesser degree. India is projected to have a positive growth of 2% for apparent steel use in 2009 and BRIC countries as a whole are forecasted to contract by only -5.9%. Projected apparent steel use for the world, excluding BRIC, is down -22.3% in 2009.
China is expected to witness negative growth of -5% in apparent steel use in 2009 as the ongoing global economic crisis hits China’s exports in addition to the effects of a slowing domestic economy. The last time that China’s apparent steel use recorded negative growth was in 1995 when apparent steel use fell by -17.2% following the real estate bubble burst. Apparent steel use for the world excluding China is expected to decline by -20.4% in 2009.
The Board will review a Short Range Outlook for 2010 at its Board Meeting in October 2009 in Beijing.
Table 1: Apparent steel use
Short range outlook for apparent steel use (2008-2009) in mmt
Regions
2008
2009
2008
2009
EU (27)
181.5
129.2
-8.4%
-28.8%
Other Europe
28.9
21.5
-8.3%
-25.7%
CIS
50.0
38.4
-11.8%
-23.1%
NAFTA
129.7
88.0
-8.2%
-32.2%
Central and South America
43.6
37.6
5.7%
-13.9%
Africa
25.3
25.2
0.2%
-0.5%
Middle East
42.8
39.0
-0.9%
-8.9%
Asia and Oceania
693.8
637.4
2.0%
-8.1%
World
1,197.4
1,018.6
-1.4%
-14.9%
BRIC
537.6
505.9
2.3%
-5.9%
World (excl. BRIC)
659.8
512.7
-4.2%
-22.3%
World (excl. China)
771.8
614.2
-3.6%
-20.4%
# Ends #
Notes to Editors:
- The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is one of the largest and most dynamic industry associations in the world. worldsteel represents approximately 180 steel producers (including 18 of the world's 20 largest steel companies), national and regional steel industry associations, and steel research institutes. worldsteel members produce around 85% of the world's steel.
- The projections forecast by worldsteel consider both real and apparent steel use. Apparent steel use reflects the deliveries of steel to the marketplace from the domestic steel producers as well as from importers. This differs from real steel use, which takes into account steel delivered to or drawn from inventories.
- The Short Range Outlook is provided by the worldsteel Committee on Economic Studies which meets twice a year. The Committee membership consists of chief economists from more than 40 of the worldsteel member companies. The Committee considers country and regional demand estimates to compile a global overview on apparent steel use (ASU). The Short Range Outlook is presented to the Board for their final review before publication.
- Click on the link below for data by country.
- ASU by country.pdf
