worldsteel Short Range Outlook
12 Oct 2009Beijing – The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is forecasting that apparent steel use will contract worldwide by -8.6% to 1,104 mmt in 2009 after declining by -1.4% in 2008. This is an improved figure over the spring forecast issued in April 2009 which predicted a decrease of -14.1%. The improvement is largely due to the exceptionally strong growth in steel demand in China. With signs, from the beginning of the second half of 2009, of a recovery across the world now apparent, global steel demand in 2010 is forecast to grow by 9.2% to 1,206 mmt which is a recovery to the level of 2008.
Commenting, Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said: "The global recovery is stronger than we predicted in April. According to our current forecast, China will rebound 19% in 2009 and 5% in 2010. Emerging economies will slow down 17% in 2009, to grow 12% in 2010. Apparent steel use in developed economies, that contracted 34% in 2009, will rebound 15% in 2010. Therefore, worldsteel forecasts that global steel demand will return to growth in 2010 but this is expected to be moderate. As before the financial crisis, the emerging economies, especially China, will be the critical factor in driving world steel demand in the near future.
Concluding, Daniel Novegil said: “While the state of the global economy has improved, uncertainties and concerns regarding the resilience of the recovery still remain with the possibility of any premature reduction in government stimulus actions. This uncertainty particularly exists for the Chinese economy in 2010, whose fast recovery in 2009 was largely enabled by such strong government stimulus policies".
China’s apparent steel use in 2009 is expected to increase by 18.8% to reach 526 mmt. China is expected to account for 47.7% of world steel apparent use and excluding China, potential world steel demand would have fallen by -24.4%.
India also remained relatively resilient to the global crisis and apparent steel use is expected to grow by 8.9% and 12.1% in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
The NAFTA region is expected to show a -35.8% decline in apparent steel use in 2009 and then a positive 17.1% growth in 2010. Apparent steel demand in the US is likely to fall by -38.7% to 60 mmt in 2009 after falling by -8.2% in 2008. It should recover to 72 mmt in 2010 with a growth rate of 18.8%.
The EU-27 economies were also severely affected by the crisis and the region’s apparent steel use is expected to fall by -32.6% in 2009 to 122 mmt. In 2010, the apparent steel use in the EU-27 is expected to grow by 12.4%.
For both NAFTA and EU-27, the level of apparent steel use that is expected in 2010 amounts to what was achieved back in 1991, demonstrating the severity of the impact of the crisis on the steel industry.
Japan will see its apparent steel use decline by -31.3%, which is expected to recover by 15.8% in 2010 to reach 61 mmt.
Apparent steel use in the CIS region is expected to contract by -30.8% in 2009 and should grow by only 8.2% in 2010.
Table 1: Apparent steel use
Short range outlook for apparent steel use (2008-2010) in mmt
Regions
2008
2009
2010
07/08
08/09
09/10
EU (27)
181.283
122.255
137.425
-8.2%
-32.6%
12.4%
Other Europe
25.316
20.813
23.817
-10.8%
-17.8%
14.4%
CIS
48.946
33.852
36.638
-13.5%
-30.8%
8.2%
NAFTA
128.955
82.771
96.932
-8.2%
-35.8%
17.1%
Central and South America
44.277
33.455
36.685
6.5%
-24.4%
9.7%
Africa
26.170
26.285
29.277
11.4%
0.4%
11.4%
Middle East
43.055
38.834
42.946
6.9%
-9.8%
10.6%
Asia and Oceania
709.010
745.471
801.866
1.8%
5.1%
7.6%
World
1,207.013
1,103.735
1,205.585
-1.4%
-8.6%
9.2%
BRIC
553.772
625.853
662.679
1.6%
13.0%
5.9%
World (excl. BRIC)
653.241
477.882
542.906
-3.8%
-26.8%
13.6%
World (excl. China)
764.049
577.493
653.032
-3.7%
-24.4%
13.1%
# Ends #
Notes to Editors:
- The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is one of the largest and most dynamic industry associations in the world. worldsteel represents approximately 180 steel producers (including 19 of the world's 20 largest steel companies), national and regional steel industry associations, and steel research institutes. worldsteel members produce around 85% of the world's steel.
- The projections forecast by worldsteel consider both real and apparent steel use. Apparent steel use reflects the deliveries of steel to the marketplace from the domestic steel producers as well as from importers. This differs from real steel use, which takes into account steel delivered to or drawn from inventories.
- The Short Range Outlook is provided by the worldsteel Committee on Economic Studies which meets twice a year. The Committee membership consists of chief economists from more than 40 of the worldsteel member companies. The Committee considers country and regional demand estimates to compile a global overview on apparent steel use (ASU). The Short Range Outlook is presented to the Board for their final review before publication.
- See attached PDF for data by country.
- ASU by country-09 Autumn.pdf
