博客:全球废钢的未来供应预期

全球废钢的未来供应预期

全球废钢的未来供应预期

Baris Bekir Çiftçi博士,  世界钢铁协会原料市场研究主管

2018年5月2日

去年的这个时候,我写了一篇博客文章,论述了废钢供应不断增长很有可能改变未来的炼钢工艺。在本篇博客中,我进一步阐述全球废钢供应的预期增长态势。

据世界钢铁协会估计,2017年全球废钢供应量约为7.5亿吨,其中6.3亿吨由全球钢铁和铸造行业进行回收利用。 世界钢铁协会预计到2030年全球废钢供应量将达到10亿吨左右,到2050年将达到13亿吨。换言之,预计未来30年,作为主要炼钢材料之一的废钢将增长超过5亿吨。

谁将引领此轮增长势态?

预计发展中国家,尤其是中国,废钢供应量将呈现最强劲增长态势,由此可见,二十世纪九十年代和二十一世纪初中国钢铁消费量增长惊人。估计到2030年中国的废钢供应量将由如今的2亿吨增长至3亿吨左右,到2050年将增至约4亿吨。

目前,中国电炉炼钢(EAF)的所占比例相对较低,与电炉和转炉(BOF)炼钢技术发达的地区相比,中国的废钢使用量相对较少,但这可能随着废钢供应的增加而改变。了解更多详情,请登录世界钢铁协会钢铁博客页面:发展电炉炼钢,时机成熟了吗?

中国炼钢产能结构已经发生了一些重大变化,关闭了约1.4亿吨的中频炉产能,新的环保措施的推行也控制产量的增长。新电炉炼钢厂(约5000万吨)预计将在未来5年投入使用。

在其他发展中地区,如印度和东盟,钢铁产量和消费量的持续强劲增长也将有助于废钢供应的增长。 预计未来15年内印度和东盟地区的废钢供应量将翻一番。

世界其他地区的废钢供应情况如何?

世界其他地区的废钢供应预计也会有所增长,尽管速度要比世界发展中地区慢得多。 据估计,北美自由贸易区、欧盟以及日本这几个发达区域及国家,目前的废钢供应约达3.2亿吨,预计到2030年将达到约3.5亿吨。

scrap availability global

上述供应预期将意味着什么?

废钢供应的强劲增长表明,从中长期来看,预计钢铁行业将越来越多地用废钢取代自然资源,从而节约原料,能源以及减少二氧化碳排放。

  • 1

    Are you also foreseen any global impact on prices of scrap or they will remain mainly locally driven?

    avatarLeonardo Carcovich2018-5-3 13:21:05Reply

  • 2

    Hello Leonardo - many thanks for your question. Unfortunately, we are not able to comment on pricing.

    avatarBARIS CIFTCI2018-5-4 16:20:52Reply

  • 3

    The reverse trend with US EAF coming back onstream will consume more scrap than available locally. This will disturb export trade to Europe. Will US become a net importer of scrap in medium-term or until Trump tariffs are fully implemented. DOC Sec Wilbur Ross knows steel dynamics all too well!

    avatarKapil SENNIK2018-5-6 16:12:50Reply

  • 4

    You mentioned that current scrap availability is 200 Mt in China. But according to the BIR, consumption in the country was 147.9 million metric tons in 2017, while exports and imports were about 2 million tonnes each. Could you, please, explain the difference in figures?

    avatarAnastasiya Kononenko2018-5-7 12:40:21Reply

  • 5

    Hi Anastasiya - many thanks for your question. We believe that including the ferrous scrap consumption by foundries and the induction furnaces - before they were shut by July 2017 -, China's scrap consumption in 2017 should be considerably higher than the figure reported by the BIR (originally by the China Association of Metal Scrap Utilization (CAMU), if I am not wrong).

    avatarBARIS BEKIR CIFTCI2018-5-7 14:28:15Reply

  • 6

    The move of shifting to EAF was well planned by China. A couple of years ago there was a report stating that excess scrap may be produced by China by 2030 and that's what happening ! In all this demand - supply game of scrap and metal, the steel market is going to be volatile and the beneficiaries of all this are the graphite makers.

    avatarHatim2018-5-9 11:11:40Reply

  • 7

    Hi Hatim -many thanks for your comment. I agree that we saw severe volatility in some of our raw materials markets in 2017 and we should expect to see significant volatility in the next few years too.

    avatarBB CIFTCI2018-5-9 15:45:16Reply

  • 8

    Great job! Could you please share a little bit about your forecasting methods?

    avatarLi Zhaoling2018-5-11 3:40:33Reply

  • 9

    Hi Li Zhaoling - thank you very much for your comment. Let me try to provide a brief explanation of our scrap availability estimation work. Scrap availability is a flow variable showing the amount of scrap generated in a year. It is estimated as the sum of home scrap, prompt scrap and obsolete scrap arising in a year. We estimate the availabilty of all three types of scrap in order to establish the regional and global scrap availability in the future. Our estimates suggest that obsolete scrap availability will be driving the growth in global scrap availability in the future, particularly in China. The calculation of obsolete scrap availability in a region first requires the estimation of the amount of ferrous material that remains in the region by taking into account international trade of steel containing goods, i.e., indirect trade in steel. Then the useful lifetime, annual discard rates and specific material loss flows should be modelled for different types of steel containing goods in order to estimate the obsolete scrap availability in a year. As you can see, this is quite a data and assumption intensive work. I hope this helps.

    avatarBB CIFTCI2018-5-14 12:38:07Reply

  • 10

    As I understand, China closed 140MT induction steel plants, which charge 100% scrap. You also mention that new EAF plants (approx. 50 Mt) are expected to be commissioned over the next 5 years. Who will use the additional 90 - 120 MT volume of scrap? My view is that it will be the large BOF producers in China who will benefit from the closure of the induction furnaces.

    avatarOleg Maslennikov2018-5-14 20:38:28Reply

  • 11

    Hi Oleg - many thanks for your comment. Allegedly induction furnaces consumed about 70 Mt of scrap in China in 2016. And reportedly average scrap charge increased in both steel production routes in China, reflecting the increased availability after the closure of induction furnaces in 2017.

    avatarBB CIFTCI2018-5-16 9:25:39Reply

  • 12

    Hi Baris - Is the projections for China to move towards Flat Carbon (FC) EAFs? This has been a US phenomena to date which has created large price differentials between obsolete & prompt scrap while the ROW works off a small standard differential as one moves up the scrap value train. Will DRI be introduced into China's charge mixes for chemistry if expansion of FC EAFs occurs or will they just use a mid level percentage of Blast Furnace hot metal ? I believe your scrap availability numbers are too low. If one looks at the global scrap reservoir & considers all steel will become scrap in their projected life cycles' minus an oxidation percentage, the volume availability of obsolete scrap will be at least 3 times greater. Availability is strictly a function of price. If the price is too low, peddlers will return to the pub & scrap yards will charge suppliers/demo contractors to take scrap off their hands. Its happened before.

    avatarJohn Harris2018-5-21 20:09:57Reply

  • 13

    Hi John – many thanks for your comments and interesting questions! It is seen that globally EAFs produce mainly longs and the BF-BOF facilities produce mainly flats. We also see that NAFTA and Japan stand out with a relatively higher ratio for the EAF capacity that produces only flats. Now we are seeing that the EAF development in China is gathering pace. However, it is not easy to estimate what the share of those EAFs with flat casting capability will be in the future. This will depend on many factors such as energy and scrap availability and price, steel demand, investment decisions and requirements (age structure of current capacities, useful lifetimes, relining requirements, coke batteries), environmental & other regulations and the future of scrap quality. China currently stands out with a relatively high share of the BOF capacity dedicated to long products. Also, a massive Induction Furnace capacity, all of which used to produce very low quality rebars, was shut. So, I believe that in the near-term EAF development in China will probably focus on longs production. Nevertheless, I also expect to see some EAF development with flat casting capability as China is also a very large and vibrant country and some locations should show conducive characteristics for this kind of development as it happened in the past in the US and Japan, and to a lesser extent in Europe. As for your second question, I do not expect to see a significant DRI production in China, however, depending on the market conditions, we might see an increased DRI demand from China. As for your comment on our scrap availability estimates, I should say that our estimates perform quite well for many different regions of the world as a proxy figure for scrap supply. We see that our availability estimates move in line with consumption figures and they tend to be higher than the overall consumption. However, one should note that scrap availability, reservoir etc. are not standardized terms and the corresponding estimates might vary considerably depending on how they are defined. I agree scrap supply is mainly a function of price and availability (which is in turn a function of historical steel consumption, life cycle and trade of steel containing goods and current steel production and consumption). However, even for those years when we saw the highest ever scrap prices, our scrap availability estimates performed rather well as a proxy for scrap supply. For the future, we do not forecast prices and our availability estimates do not reflect any (potential) price impact. So I believe the actual scrap supply can exceed our availability estimates depending on the prices and demand, but probably not by 3 times and only temporarily.

    avatarBB CIFTCI2018-6-25 8:41:39Reply

  • 14

    In your view, what would be the situation of scrap availability in India in the next 5 years due to i) end of vehicle policy coming into implementation; ii) serious attempt made by the Govt. of India to ensure scrap availability through organized scrap collection and processing centres which includes shredding plants. One such plant is under implementation in Greater Noida, NCR, Delhi. More such plants are expected in other parts of the country. A significant point to be noted is that scrap collection, segregation and its use, hitherto a largely unorganized market in India, is trying to take an organized shape.

    avatarArun Kumar Agrawal2018-6-21 6:56:48Reply

  • 15

    Hi Arun - many thanks for your comment. Indeed the Indian Government aims to promote the use and ensure the availability of scrap and is taking several steps towards meeting these objectives. These steps should certainly help improve the scrap collection and processing efficiency and the overall scrap availability in the country.

    avatarBB CIFTCI2018-6-25 7:03:30Reply

  • 16

    Dear Dr. Ciftci, what do you think about the Korea scrap market? I just read some article showing that consumption has decreased in H1 2018 while imports have increased by 7.4%. What does this mean? Why? And, from a price point of view, how do you see 2019? I look forward to your comments and thanks really a lot!

    avatarEric Zhu2018-10-10 3:43:11Reply

  • 17

    Hi Eric - Many thanks for your question. It is indeed an interesting observation: Korea's scrap consumption is decreasing while the scrap imports into the country are showing an increase. I do not follow Korea scrap consumption trends very closely, Nevertheless, one reason could be the varying raw materials consumption trends. Some users that use domestic scrap could have reduced their scrap charge or could be operating at lower capacity utilisation rates, whereas some other users that use more foreign scrap might have increased their scrap charge and/or might be operating at higher capacity utilisation rates. For 2019, it is not within my remit to comment on the Korea market. Nevertheless, global steel business might show similar characteristics and trends to those of 2018. As the main driving force of global steel business, China is expected to have a year that is similar to 2018.

    avatarBaris Ciftci2018-10-15 13:34:01Reply

  • 18

    Hi Baris, what is your viewpoint on EU steel scrap availability and potential switch of some BF/BOFs to EAFs (eg. older plants in Central Europe)? Some analysts claim EU should aim to increase EAF share in line with US model, that from 40 to 60 percent. Globally it does not make much sense, as there is not enough scrap to produce steel without virgin materials, therefore also emitting CO2. Thanks.

    avatarLukas2019-2-17 20:14:12Reply

  • 19

    Hi Lukas - First, on your question on scrap availability in Europe, we expect scrap availability to grow modestly in EU28 in the medium-term, thanks to the growing obsolete scrap availability. With regard to your second question on the future of BF/BOFs and EAFs in EU’s steel production structure, I believe that the fact that two different facilities can produce steel does not necessarily mean that one can easily substitute the other one. Europe’s steel production structure will certainly continue to evolve and this evolution will be shaped by many factors some of which you already mentioned: demand for different types of steel products, regional energy availability and cost, investment decisions and requirements (age structure of current capacities, useful lifetimes, relining requirements, coke batteries), regulatory requirements particularly environmental, future of the recycling sector and raw materials availability and quality. Some factors such as the growing availability of scrap will probably support an increase in the share of EAFs in total crude steel production. Nevertheless, for Europe I would personally not expect this share to reach the levels seen in the US in the medium term.

    avatarBB CIFTCI2019-2-19 16:32:46Reply

  • 20

    Very informative piece of article, this blog has helped me to understand the concept even better. Keep on blogging.

    avatarsandrakrish2019-8-29 9:39:33Reply

  • 21

    Hi Sandrakrish - very glad to hear that you found the blog informative. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments on this topic.

    avatarBARIS CIFTCI2019-12-10 9:20:17Reply

  • 22

    Hi, Many thanks for this interesting and usefult post. Are your regional scrap availability projections possibly available anywhere? Many thanks!

    avatarAnna2019-11-13 17:24:35Reply

  • 23

    Hi Anna - many thanks for your comment. Please feel free to contact us if you would like to hear further about the future of scrap availability in a particular region.

    avatarBARIS CIFTCI2019-12-10 9:21:33Reply

  • 24

    It is time to review the various scrap types and their most likely chemistry. Is the World Steel Association participating in this kind of effort?

    avatarRonaldo2019-12-10 3:09:53Reply

  • 25

    Hi Ronaldo - I fully agree with you that increasing scrap availability and scrap chemistry complexity will require increased R&D activity in scrap sorting, refining and management. As worldsteel, we performed several studies on this front and hope to pursue others in the future.

    avatarBARIS CIFTCI2019-12-10 9:24:11Reply