博客:印度钢铁需求前景广阔

印度钢铁需求前景广阔

Adam Szewczyk, 数据管理总监

2019年1月15日

世界钢铁协会于2018年12月20日公布的2018年前11个月全球粗钢产量数据表明,印度已经超过日本,成为世界第二大钢铁生产国,增长率为4.9%。

钢铁生产的增长得益于快速增长的钢铁需求。根据世界钢铁协会2018年10月份发布的全球短期钢铁需求预测报告,2019年印度有可能成为全球钢铁消费量排名第二的国家,预计钢铁需求量增长7.3%。

随着印度经济从废钞和商品及服务税(GST)实施的双重冲击中开始复苏,印度的钢铁工业在这个低增长时代,是世界钢铁工业为数不多的亮点之一。

印度钢铁需求的驱动力何在?

印度的人均钢铁表观消费量为66.2公斤,远低于2017年世界平均水平的212.3公斤,这表明印度在钢铁需求增长方面具有巨大的潜力待挖掘。

最近,印度一直试图通过一项广泛的改革方案来释放该潜力,以突破制度性瓶颈。此外,基础设施建设也在不断推进。

这些因素,加上有利的人口结构,正在改善宏观经济基本面,从而转化为持续增长的钢铁消费。

世界钢铁协会与印度钢铁协会合作进行的一项关于印度市场的研究表明,在基础建设和住房需求,尤其是经济适用住房需求强劲的背景下,建筑业是印度国内各地区钢铁需求的驱动力。诸

如工业走廊(连接现有工业城市和发展制造业)和萨加马拉(通过水路连接各州)等项目将增加印度的互连互通水平,降低印度各联邦的运输物流成本。

智能城市倡议将进一步促进城市基础设施投资。目前印度有99座城市正在智能规划建设中。

India map

作为增长引擎之一,印度制造业的发展一直滞后于服务业,未来其前景应该会得到改善。

首先,旨在将印度转变为全球设计和制造中心的“印度制造”倡议将进一步支持发展沿工业和货运走廊的钢铁消费行业。

其次,许多邦有望发展汽车和支撑产业,成为以出口为重点的全球小型汽车制造中心。最后,预期一些邦也会加强其机械制造业。

所有这些因素都表明,印度的钢铁需求增长潜力很大,但实现潜力的速度将取决于印度是否能够成功地实施其改革方案和基础设施规划。

欢迎随时提出宝贵意见和建议。

  • 1

    A wonderful analysis of India's steel outlook in the coming years. My compliments to Mr. Adam Szewczyk, Head, Data Management world Steel, for his in-depth knowledge of the growth drivers for boosting steel demand in India. The construction sector in India especially, and affordable housing has the potential to boost steel demand to a great extent.

    avatarDinesh Kumar Shukla2019-1-16 18:28:55Reply

  • 2

    Good analysis and encouraging statistics for India. It's a very positive sign that apart from infrastructure, steel use is growing in housing sector and that too surprisingly in affordable housing. But I really doubt this - "*According to worldsteel’s October Short Range Outlook, it is likely that India will also become #2 in steel use by the end of 2019 as its steel demand is expected to grow by 7.3%.*" Projecting number 2 in steel use looks unrealistic. From a meek 66 kg to staggering 400+kg?

    avatarEr Deepak S Shah2019-1-17 8:21:04Reply

  • 3

    Thanks for your comment, Deepak. #2 refers to the absolute volume of steel demand in 2019, as presented in the Short Range Outlook October 2018 press release. The low steel use per capita in India, about 70 kg compared with a world average of more than 200 kg, and the structure of steel use in India, where construction dominates, which is typical for developing nations, leave a lot of opportunities for development.

    avatarAdam Szewczyk2019-1-17 9:04:29Reply

  • 4

    Infrastructure, housing and auto sectors are contributing to the increased steel demand in India.

    avatarS S PANDA2019-1-25 19:45:19Reply

  • 5

    With regard to steel demand 2020, what will be the shredded scrap availability?

    avatarPreetish Manvi2019-2-16 9:34:56Reply

  • 6

    Thank you for your comment, Preetish. We will be providing more details on the 2020 steel demand forecast in our Short Range Outlook to be released in April.

    avatarAdam Szewczyk2019-2-18 12:48:47Reply

  • 7

    As Head of Raw Materials at worldsteel, I will reply to your question regarding scrap availability. We understand that the Indian Government aims to promote the use and ensure the availability of scrap and is taking several steps towards meeting these objectives. These steps should certainly help improve the scrap collection and processing efficiency and the overall scrap availability in the country. For example, efforts are underway to set up auto and white goods shredding units in the country. One such unit is being set up by the state owned MSTC Ltd. with a tentative capacity of around 300,000 tonnes per annum.

    avatarBaris Bekir Çiftçi2019-2-18 12:51:34Reply